Tesla shares back to where they were in 2016...

"Manwich - now Keto-Friendly" (manwich)
05/22/2019 at 16:01 • Filed to: None

I know some of you may be shocked, REALLY SHOCKED, to hear this, but I’m a *bit* of a Tesla fan.

And I’ve own their stock in the past... but I’m not a fan to the point that I’ll just blindly hold their stock.

I sold in in Q4 of last year for a tidy profit when the news coverage was sounding a bit too ‘rosy and perfect’.

Lately, the TSLA coverage has been mostly doom and gloom and as a result, they hit a 52 week low and the shares are now below what what I paid the first time I bought back in 2016.

So today I decided to take the plunge and now I’m a TSLA shareholder again for the time being.

The way I see it, the Tesla of today has all the same uncertainties and threats of Tesla of 2016.

But the difference is today, their sales are way higher, they have more assets, they have more product diversity and they learned a lot of hard mass-production lessons through the Model 3 that will be good for the company in the long run.

It will interesting to watch how Tesla and the auto industry evolves over the next year or two.

DISCUSSION (8)

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
05/22/2019 at 16:28

Nice sell.

Not so sure about your buy...

Variance > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
05/22/2019 at 17:59

Might have been a bit premature with that buy, in my opinion . It’s looking like Q1 2019 financials are going to be abysmal, which is likely to tank the stock even further.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > Variance
05/22/2019 at 18:15

Well we shall see. I’m not doing day trading. I’m thinking about where the company will be financially after the Model 3 is rolled out everywhere, the Model Y starts being produced and after the plant in China is online.

All that is supposed to happen between now and the end of 2020.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > Variance
05/22/2019 at 18:18

And I think you mean Q2 2019 financials will be lousy as the Q1 2019 financials are already out:

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b2218d34-fbee-4f1f-ac95-050eb29dd42f

Variance > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
05/22/2019 at 18:32

RIP, must’ve fat-fingered 1 instead of 2. Guess that’s what I get for not proof-reading my post.

I agree that, unless they REALLY fuck up (which is certainly possible, but that’s neither here nor there) , the stock will eventually recover, but with the Model Y probably still a year away and the ongoing trade war with China, I expect the stock will continue dropping for at least a little while longer.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > Variance
05/22/2019 at 19:34

You might be right that it still may drop more.

Based on the research I’ve done, there should be support in the $180 range in the short term. Longer term is harder to say and I’ll admit that what I’m doing is basically ‘trying to catch a falling knife’.

And that would matter far more if I was day trading or planning on selling again within days.

There IS a possibility they could royally fuck up. Hell... I thought the falcon wing doors on the Model X was a HUGE mistake... and I was surprised they made it work... but at the cost of lots of production delays and delayed revenue.

Just the other day, I saw a quote from a Ford exec saying the aluminum bed on the F150 was Ford’s ‘moonshot’.

And I’m thinking ‘You call that a moonshot???’. Look at the Tesla Model X with those crazy doors... THAT’S a moonshot. A conventional bed made of aluminum in large numbers is somewhat innovative.

But it ain’t a moonshot to me.

And it’s that kind of thinking that suggests to me that car makers like Ford won’t be meeting or beating the moving target that is Tesla any time soon.

Same deal with VAG. Reading up on the Audi E-Tron and then seeing the specs and pricing... yeah the interior is nice. But underneath, it’s competing with the Tesla of 2012.

C onsidering the Y won’t have falcon wing doors AND with what Tesla learned with the Model 3, I expect the Model Y launch will be relatively smooth... smooth for Tesla anyway. B ut probably at least a little rough by other car maker standards.

Regarding trade wars... my gut will tell me things will magically get ‘better’ with that in 2020 because Crooked Trump will want to get re-elected. For one thing, the idiotic steel and aluminum tariffs have been lifted.

And that’s something that not many seem to be talking about that will help the auto industry.

I think Trump is a Dotard... but not THAT much of a dotard. But then again, he just might surprise me with more behaviour that redefines the words ‘crooked’ and ‘stupid’. Trump’s MO is to create a crisis that he magically “fixes”.

And when does he want to fix the problems he created? Well I would guess in the time leading up to the next presidential election.

I could be wrong about this... but we shall see.

Ash78, voting early and often > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
05/22/2019 at 20:00

I wouldn’t touch them for another year or more...the Model 3 is in a very crowded segment and the whole future of the company is basically staked on it. I can’t parse the financials because they’re more like a tech company. But for now, the best they could do is appoint a real CEO and stop letting Musk be the mouthpiece. Make him COO and let him stay Chairman or something.

Variance > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
05/22/2019 at 22:02

I’ll definitely be glad when this shit is over and the tariffs are lifted; they’re currently messing with my job, destroying the business cases I had built for some China-sourced components.

Honestly, while I get that being all tech-loaded and minimalist interior designs are Tesla’s shtick now, I kinda wish they would just make a normal damn car. Functionally, I would be very interested in something like a Model 3 (especially if they made a 2-door), but I absolutely ABHOR the interior design. This is why Porsche’s pending entry into the BEV market is of particular interest to me; while I suspect that the Taycan will be out of my price range, the possibility of an all-electric Cayman is particularly appealing.